PAKISTAN STARES INTO THE ABYSS

The radicalization of Pakistan is progressing at such a pace that it may prove unstoppable, thereby jeopardizing U.S. policy across the region. That could be the reason some experts, including David Kilcullen, a former adviser to Gen. David Petraeus, are saying Pakistan could collapse under a growing insurgency before the end of this year.
Other dire predictions have included a warning that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could fall into the hands of insurgents. While that possibility is described as farfetched by those familiar with the security surrounding the country’s nuclear arsenal, all of the fears expressed by experts have one thing in common - a recognition of the growing Islamic radicalization of the country. If Islamists were to emerge as the driving force politically and militarily, there is every reason to conclude that the U.S. and the region would be looking at an extreme nation with its finger on the nuclear button. In turn, that would lead to increased tensions with India and a deadlier war for the U.S. and its allies in Afghanistan.
If one examines closely the increasing insurgency in Pakistan, one could easily conclude that the military is unable or unwilling to deal effectively with the Taliban, Al Qaeda and other home-grown insurgents. There is also a real possibility that the Pakistan army’s rank and file, as well as elements of the officer class, have become radicalized. That would explain the growing anti-Americanism in the ranks and calls for the loosening of links between Islamabad and Washington. Pakistan’s military leaders have also demanded an end to Predator drone air strikes on targets within Pakistan and a greater recognition by the U.S. of the country’s territorial integrity. Those demands have been echoed throughout the political corridors of power and have resounded much more loudly in the streets where respect for America is at an all time low.
All of this supports a disturbing commentary that Pakistan is gradually disintegrating into a state that is finding it hard to curtail a growing Islamic insurgency, which has expanded from the tribal areas into major population centers and threatens to engulf the whole country. Pakistan’s answer to the insurgency has changed little in recent years. Under the Bush administration, the Pakistani dictator, General Pervez Musharraf, took billions in aid from Washington while he made all the right political noises about the war on terror. At the same time, he permitted his intelligence service, the ISI, to maintain its close links with the Taliban and to plot attacks against Indian forces in the disputed Kashmir region. As for the tribal areas, Musharraf chose a policy of appeasement rather than confrontation. That policy has continued under the new civilian president, Asif Ali Zardari and the army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani. Like Musharraf, their preoccupation, much to the anger of Washington, continues to be focused on a perceived threat from India. Their pervading principle about the Taliban and its fellow travelers is that it is better to seek accommodation with them. A striking example of that policy was the handing over of the Swat Valley to the Taliban in February, thereby allowing the imposition of Sharia Law throughout that region. The decision illustrated an acceptance by the government and the military that the Taliban, and like-minded groups, were fellow Muslims and it would be wrong to use conventional military means to dislodge them from their power bases.
In a recent congressional report, Sen. Chuck Hagel, (R. Neb), and Sen. John Kerry, (D. Mass), warned that time was running out to help Pakistan change course and there was a real danger of “ultimate failure.” The senators predicted that there was a six-month window to turn things around and if that could not be achieved, we could be looking at a failed state within a year.
One of the major fears in Washington is that the Pakistani military is so deeply penetrated by Islamists that many officers thinks it is better to make deals with insurgents even if that means allowing them to cross freely into Afghanistan to fight NATO. Throughout the tribal areas, the Pakistan military has brokered agreements that have led to peace in the southwestern province of Baluchistan. However, most deals have only helped the Taliban and other Islamist groupings to grow from strength to strength. Radicalizing influences within the Pakistan military have also empowered extreme Islamist clerics, many of whom have moved from the country’s borders into urban centers, threatening what was always hailed as a prime example of a secular state. All of this has occurred because of a reluctance to confront a growing Talibanization of large, federally administered areas where the insurgency has complicated the country’s relationship with the U.S. and its allies.
Pakistani generals and political leaders argue that many of their problems derive from the fact that supporting the Bush War on Terror meant Pakistan acted recklessly on its own turf by going after Taliban elements that posed no threat to the country, and by targeting Islamists who merely wanted to spread their religious message. As a consequence, the Pakistani military, at Washington's bidding, made no distinction between Al Qaeda terrorists and a Taliban it felt it could control. Before long, its military campaigns in the northwest provinces alienated all Islamist groupings and led to a deepening alienation that has grown in intensity with U.S. Predator drone attacks.
Whether or not those are valid arguments, there is little doubt the Pakistani military and political leaderships cannot live publicly with what they are calling invasions of their country’s sovereignty by the U.S. That is why they have asked the Pentagon to provide them with MQ1 predator drone systems, which cost anywhere from $5 million to $15 million. They have also requested one or two of the more advanced MQ9 Reaper drones, which can carry two 500lb bombs as well as Hellfire missiles. The Reapers are the most sophisticated drones in the U.S. counterinsurgency arsenal. They can fly higher and longer than their predecessors and have extra sensors. They have been described as the hunter-killer submarine of the air. It is unlikely Washington would agree to trust the Pakistani military with this new technology, or with the intelligence that it uses for targeting. India told Washington it would oppose the transfer of drones to its neighbor, suspecting they could be used in the Kashmir region, or other border hotspots between the two countries. For now, the likelihood is the U.S. will deny Pakistan’s request for drones and will continue to go after terrorist leaders hiding across the border from Afghanistan. Meanwhile, we will all have to watch with some trepidation to see if Pakistanis can stand bank from the brink and prevent the kind of radicalization that could lead to an extreme, anti-American Islamic government taking over the country.