OBAMA SEES TURKEY AS MAJOR PLAYER

The recent visit to Turkey by Sec. of State, Hilary Clinton, was more than just a diplomatic exercise. It was the beginning of a process to establish better relations with a Muslim nation, which could play a critical role in a new Middle East policy that will involve the withdrawal of tens of thousands of U.S. troops and their equipment from Iraq and the possible normalizing of relations with Iran.
During the Bush Administration, relations with Turkey, a NATO partner since 1952 with the second largest army in the Atlantic alliance, soured over U.S. Iraq policy and moves within Congress to pass a resolution stating that Turkey was guilty of genocide in the mass murder and deportation of 1.5 million Armenians by the Ottoman Empire at the close of World War 1.
On Iraq policy, the refusal by the Turkish parliament in 2003 to pass a resolution allowing the U.S. to stage part of its Iraq invasion from Turkey was considered treachery in Washington. It not only prolonged the invasion process but extended the time it took for U.S. troops to enter Baghdad, thereby allowing time for looters to bring chaos to the city. It subsequently led to bitter words on both sides and a feeling in Washington that Turkey was not a reliable NATO ally. On the issue of Armenia, it makes headlines every April 24 on Armenian Independence Day and raises tensions between Turkey and America. During President Bush’s term in office he made an annual statement condemning the mass killing of Armenians. At the same time, members of Congress representing Americans made their yearly attempt to drum up support for a resolution condemning Turkey and labeling the killings of almost a century ago as genocide.
This year, President Obama may have found a way round the Armenian issue by encouraging Turkey to make overtures to Armenia, which would allow for dialogue on the issue and pave the way for a successful visit Turkey by the president in April.
So why is Turkey important to Obama as he navigates his way through a raft of new foreign policy strategies? For a start, Turkey is not only a nation that has a 99% Sunni Muslim population of 77 million, it is also a parliamentary democracy that sits between East and West. To the West it looks towards the European Union and America and to the east it faces the Caucasus, Syria, Iraq and Iran. As a major maritime nation on the Black Sea, it is a vital economic partner for the West because it provides an important gateway for shipping oil and gas from the Caucasus to Europe and the United States.
How Turkey sees its role is crucial to understanding its true potential and that is best expressed in the words of Turkey’s ambassador to the Czech Republic, Koray Targay:
“We are located in the so-called Eurasian region. We have very good relations with all of our neighbors. Beginning with Russia, going to the East, it means Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Iraq and Syria; with all of them we maintain good-neighborly, close and balanced relations. We also play a bridging role between Europe and Asia. If you look at Turkey from the Asian point of view, we are considered as a European country, but if you look at us from the European point of view, we are considered as an Asian country. So this is a delicate situation, but it gives us also a lot of flexibility as well as responsibility to maintain all these balanced relations, understanding, considering and respecting the interests of all parties.”
The Obama White House recognizes that Turkey can bring a lot to the table in terms of its military commitment to NATO’s role in Afghanistan and to the realignment of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. For example, the secure withdrawal of U.S. troops and their equipment from Iraq and can be achieved if Turkey is involved. Like the Turks, Barack Obama opposed the invasion of Iraq and may therefore have more in common with them in negotiating their help for the Iraq withdrawal.
It is also clear that Turkey is an important military component in the expanding war in Afghanistan and now that the U.S. is about to be denied the use of the base it had leased from Kyrgyzstan it needs the massive Turkish airbase at Incirlik. It is located about 250 miles from Ankara and was built with the guidance of U.S. military engineers in 1951. Since then, it has played an important role in U.S. operations and could now be the staging point for materiel being routed to Afghanistan. The Pentagon would also like to see Turkey increase the number of troops it has in Afghanistan. As of 2009, Turkey has a standing army of over one million with a highly integrated air force and a special operations command. Its navy is the largest in the Mediterranean and it has a modern submarine fleet.
Observers who followed Hilary Clinton’s trip to Turkey were struck by the warmth of the greeting she received. It was rumored that she spoke to Turkey’s leaders not only about the Iraq withdrawal but about plans for the State Department to initiate back door talks with Syria and Iran, nations that respect Turkey’s international clout. Suggestions that she may have asked for Turkey’s help on the delicate matter of talks with Iran were given credence by the fact that days after her visit, the Turkish prime minister visited Teheran. The White House was thrilled with the Clinton visit, especially after the Turkish foreign minister said it marked “a new era” in American-Turkish relations and that Turkey was now ready to cooperate with the U.S. on a range of issues.
But what does Turkey want from such a new partnership. It will expect the U.S. to continue to press the E.U. to promote Turkey’s application for membership. As major Muslim nation it will also expect Washington to take steps to solve the Palestinian issue. Turkey feels that the Israeli invasion of Gaza was a dangerous step towards heightening tension throughout the Muslim world. It is also worried that a new Israeli Likud administration will reflect hard-line Israeli policies that could prove even more divisive across the Middle East. That may well be the case if the new Israeli leader, Benyamin Netanyahu makes the far right leader, Avigdor Lieberman his foreign minister. Turkey will also want the U.S. to improve relations with Russia, one of Turkey’s neighbor major trading partners, and to be more circumspect in giving unquestioned military support to Georgia. However, that could prove more difficult than Turkey imagines, given recent statements from Russia that it not only plans to re-build its nuclear forces but it may locate strategic bombers in Cuba with parking rights in Venezuela.
Overall, however, the benefits from a new U.S. closeness with Turkey could be immense. In terms of the U.S. presence in the Black Sea region alone it is ideal for the Pentagon to have Bulgaria, now an EU and NATO member, working closely with Turkey to ensure the region is not used a gateway by terrorists and that shipping is not threatened. As for energy, Turkey will remain a critical linchpin in the West’s energy policy for decades to come.