IRAN A NATO ALLY IN AFGHAN WAR?

When Iran launched a satellite into space on February 3 the reaction among military hawks in the corridors of power in Israel was a case of we told you so. It had the immediate effect of raising the stakes in a war of words in which Israel is constantly implying that is considering, if not actively planning, a surgical strike to take out Iran’s nuclear plants and its missile development facilities.
The satellite, called Omid, meaning hope, was described by Iran as a vehicle for earthquake monitoring and telecommunications yet the U.S. State Department said it was a matter of grave concern that Iran now had a technical ability, which could be used in the its long range missile program. That was a somewhat curious reaction since it was clear a year ago when Iran launched one of its newest missiles that it had the technical expertise to launch a small payload into low space orbit. The State Department also reminded the international community that there were U.N. measures in place calling on countries to restrict the sale of certain types of technology to Iran. The State Department approach appeared to be aimed at showing solidarity with Israeli and with pro-Israel elements in the U.S.
In Tel Aviv, security figures told media outlets that this was a new and worrying development and that it underscored Iran’s military ambitions. It could, some of them claimed, lead to Iran being able to launch nuclear weapons long distances. That implied Iran could, in the not too distant future, strike at America. But not everyone in Israel is frightened by Iran’s space program. In August, 2008 when Iran successfully tested the missile used in this latest satellite launch, a former head of Israel’s Space Agency, Yitzhak Ben Israel, dismissed warnings from security experts, pointing out that much of the commentary about Iran’s space program was exaggerated. He said Iran was building unsophisticated satellites of a type that students at Israel’s aviation institute had built a decade ago. But, experts like Tal Inbar at Israel’ space research facilities said it was a sophisticated effort by Iran and represented a serious turning point, which had far reaching consequences for Israel’s security.
The launch of Omid came on the anniversary of the Iranian Revolution and was seen by many as an attempt by the country’s president, Ahmadinejad, to increase his popularity with the masses ahead of June elections. Overall, his image has been tarnished by diplomatic gaffes so the satellite launch may well have been designed to restore his standing as the person who promised to take his nation into the space age. Nowadays, Iranians look to India an example of what can be achieved technologically as a way of improving a country’s international standing. For example, India, much like China, has an advanced space program with plans for a manned moon landing and for the launch of probes to Mars before 2020. It is also a member of what is called the nuclear club.
In contrast, Iran is an amateur in the space race. In the opinion of most defense experts, it is far behind India in missile and space development. Even if Iran could produce enough enriched uranium to make a small nuclear device there is no evidence it possesses the technical ability to be able to fit such a device to a missile. Nevertheless, every move by Iran is closely watched by Israel and as a consequence by Washington. During the Bush presidency, the Israelis wanted to a strike at Iran and may even have had the backing of Vice President, Dick Cheney.
Joe Biden, Dick Cheney’s successor did not respond to news of the satellite launch but instead offered an olive branch to the Iranians, pointing out that if they abandoned their nuclear program and their support for terrorism there could be “meaningful incentives” for them. The diplomatic tone of the message was in stark contrast to the initial State Department reaction. It seemed to indicate that the overall view of the Obama administration was that Iran’s launch of a small satellite into low orbit was not that big an issue. Biden’s comments could easily have been construed as a signal to some in Israel that it was not a time to be ramping up the rhetoric. It certainly had the effect of silencing the Israeli government. Its leading spokesman declined to comment when asked about Iran’s space ambitions. Yet, within the Israeli military hierarchy there was a deep conviction that Iran’s need for a satellite was more than just about monitoring earthquakes and routing telecommunications. It was put in orbit, they claim, to give Iran advance warning of any Israeli attack on his nuclear or missile facilities.
For the U.S., there is a lot at stake in seeking to open a dialogue with Iran rather than feeding into Israeli fears and allowing hawks in Israel to continue to advocate strikes against Iran. It has not been lost on the Obama administration, as well as NATO generals in charge of the war in Afghanistan, and a growing insurgency in Pakistan, that it would be better to have Iran as an ally. It is a nation of Shia Muslims, bordering Afghanistan, and it has no love for the Taliban and Al Qaeda, who are Sunni Arabs. At the outset of the invasion of Afghanistan, Iran offered to help the Bush Administration but the overture was rejected because neocons in Washington had already decided that Iran was part of what later became known as “the axis of evil.”
NATO has already made it clear to Washington that it would like to see a diplomatic outreach to Iran because of continued instability in Pakistan, and the Pakistani military’s failure to curb it, is threatening NATO supply routes into Afghanistan. Now, with the forced closure of the U.S. base in Kyrgyzstan, and the blowing up of bridges in the Khyber Pass, the Iranian port of Chabahar is beginning to look like an ideal transit point to ship NATO supplies into Afghanistan. The NATO commander in Afghanistan, General John Craddock, has indicated that NATO would not block individual members doing a deal with Iran for the “transit of supplies."
If that were to happen, it would change the dynamics of the America - Iran relationship. It would also imply that, behind the scenes, Washington, with NATO’s help, has closed in on a deal with Iran to give up its nuclear enrichment ambitions in return for full diplomatic relations and what Vice-President Biden called “meaningful incentives.” In such a scenario, the recent missile launch by Iran would quickly become an issue hawks in Israel would not be able to exploit. It would also solve serious problems facing NATO as it awaits a surge of U.S. troops numbering as many as 30,000. Those troops, and the ones already on the battlefield, will need a supply line that is not being constantly threatened. If Iran were to guarantee secure supply lines that would represent a major political shift but, like so much else about the turbulent politics of that region, we will have to wait and see if a significant reversal of the American-Iran relationship is truly possible.