JAPAN READIES FOR PERCEIVED CHINA THREAT

In 2009, Japan is expected to launch a major five-year expansion of its self defense forces in response to China flexing its military muscle in the region.
Japan’s decision to abandon a decades’ old tendency to ignore the need for a competitive military has not gone unnoticed in China where there has been growing criticism of Japan’s desire, in particular, for a bigger navy and closer military ties to the United States.
For its part, Japan has not timid about the reasons for its planned military build-up. In recent times, it has unapologetically broken with previous diplomatic protocols by describing China as a potential threat. It is the kind of language that has angered Chinese leaders who would prefer to see Japan retain its constitutionally required pacifism, which derived from a US-mandated constitution following World War Two. The constitution severely restricted Japan’s military, ensuring it could not be re-constructed for anything but self defense purposes and it also curtailed its size and capabilities. For several years now, Washington has been encouraging Japan to step outside of the strictures of its constitution. It has also mounted joint exercise between various branches of the Japanese self defense forces and the U.S. military and has persuaded the Japanese to play a more pro-active role in peacekeeping duties in Iraq and elsewhere.
The motivation for Washington’s back door pressure on Japan to modernize its military relates to a strategy to provide a counterbalance to Chinese military aggression and to send a signal to the Chinese that the U.S. will not tolerate China wielding unquestioned dominance of the high seas in that region and across Asia. The U.S. has recently initiated new security arrangements with Japan and has forged closer ties between the Australian and Japanese militaries, which see China as a future danger to stability in Asia.
Signs that the U.S. and Japan were agreed on a new security approach to the region were evident in an agreement by Japan to build a missile defense system with U.S. help and to purchase four advanced U.S. destroyers with the most up-to date surface- to-air missile capabilities. In conjunction with parts of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, the Japanese navy has acceded to a Pentagon request to participate in intelligence gathering on China’s maritime activities.
The Japanese have made it clear to Washington that, despite growing trade with China, there has been a lack of transparency on China’s part regarding the expansion of its military and the sums spent on new weaponry. In the past year, there has been concern expressed within Japan’s military and civilian leadership that the country’s hi-tech weaponry may have been compromised by a previous reliance on Chinese made components. As a consequence, Japan has undertaken a new program to break the reliance on Chinese manufactured computer chips.
One of the major issues facing Japan and China is territorial and relates to disputed areas of the East China Seas, which contain large deposits of oil and gas. In 2007, Japan complained that China’s gas exploration was reducing natural gas reserves in Japan’s territorial waters. Japan has argued for a demarcation line to be drawn equidistant between the two countries, thereby following a practice enshrined in the international Law of the Sea Treaty. China refused and aggressively argued that its continental shelf reached further into the disputed waters and it was therefore entitled to a greater share of the territory. China’s posture reflected an outmoded method of solving maritime disputes and signaled the unorthodox steps China was prepared to adopt in its desperate need for energy to feed its massive infrastructure projects and to satisfy the growing demand for energy by its more than 1 billion inhabitants. While some agreements have been made regarding joint exploration, tensions in the disputed areas have not lessened and China has been reluctant to cede ground on many of its territorial claims. Japan therefore sees an ongoing Chinese naval build up as a precursor to China employing force in pursuit of its claims. In response, it is likely by 2010 that Japan will have a fleet of over 30 destroyers, two new aircraft carriers, 17 conventional submarines, the latest early warning surveillance aircraft and over 250 modern fighter aircraft.
Japan’s planned military expansion is also predicated on the assertion that, like the U.S., it would deem a Chinese mainland attack on the island of Taiwan a threat to Japan’s security and the stability of East Asia. In that event, the Japanese military would have to provide support to the U.S. military which, in respect of explicit term assurances contained in the Taiwan Relations Act, would have to come to that island’s defense.
China has an obsessive view of sovereignty when it comes to claiming Taiwan as part of mainland China. But sovereignty is a cover for a much great recognition by China that the island of Taiwan presents limits to China’s ability to move forcefully into the Pacific in order to exert even greater influence in the region. Possession of Taiwan would also expand China’s costal area and maritime zone in terms of economic advantages from fishing and energy exploration. More significantly, it would also allow China to seal off important shipping lanes to American allies in the region. China’s army and naval elites have made their views on the issue clear in the following statement:
‘‘China is semi-concealed by the first island chain. If it wants to prosper, it has to advance into the Pacific, in which China’s future lies. Taiwan, facing the Pacific in the east, is the only unobstructed exit for China to move into
the ocean. If this gateway is opened for China, then it becomes
much easier for China to maneuver in the West Pacific.’’
Japan, the United States and Australia are well aware of China’s thinking on the subject and Japan, as China’s neighbor is moving ahead, with Washington’s encouragement, to be ready for the day China decides to enforce its Taiwan ambitions.