INDIA-CHINA RELATIONS HIT NEW LOW

When the Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, next visits the White House he will be keen to talk about threat from China. In his back pocket, he will have a check for tens of billions of dollars to buy the latest U.S. weapons systems. It is estimated India is ready to spend upwards of $90 billion to ensure its forces are ready to deal with the ever expanding Chinese military machine.
Tensions between the two South Asian giants have been strained of late and that was evident in heated media exchanges. Indian newspapers carried stories about the potential threat China posed along India’s Himalayan borders where they intersected with China, Tibet, Nepal, Bhutan and West Pakistan. Beijing responded through the columns of the People’s Daily newspaper that it was time for India to put its own house in order and avoid the kinds of public comments that could have unforeseen consequences. China also pointed out that it had never recognized the Mc Mahon Line, which defines part of its border with India.
Expressions of enmity between New Delhi and Beijing are nothing new but tensions have heightened as India has watched China expand its navy through the building of massive bases in parts of the South China Sea region in an effort to control shipping lanes through which it moves most of the crude oil to fuel its massive infrastructure. China has also upgraded its theater nuclear capability along its border with India, especially in the region known as Arunachal Pradesh, which India claims is an integral part of its national territory. China disagrees and says it is part of South Tibet and therefore Chinese. Tensions in Arunachal Pradesh can be traced back to 1959 when India welcomed the Dalai Lama and gave him sanctuary. In 1962, Chinese troops crossed the border and started what became known as the Sino-Indian War. Fighting at high altitude was fierce and initially the Indian military was taken by surprise and proved no match for a large Chinese force. After one month of fighting, during which there were heavy casualties on both sides, many of them from frostbite, the Chinese withdrew below the Mc Mahon Line, the border line established by the British in the 19th century.
Since 1962, there have been many border skirmishes between the two countries but the latest bitter verbal exchanges about disputed Indian-run Arunchal Pradesh epitomize the serious, underlying tensions between the two nations. On a fundamental level, India has watched closely as China has sought to dominate the region. Beijing's signing of a pact with the military junta in neighboring Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, has incensed Indian leaders, who see it as another part of China’s strategy to encircle India. Military strategists in New Delhi have warned that China’s wooing of the junta is designed to acquire the use of a Myanmar port, which would provide the Chinese navy with direct access to the Indian Ocean.
China has consistently made it clear it is unhappy with New Delhi’s growing closeness to Washington and it echoed those feelings in its latest pronouncements in the People’s Daily. The Chinese realize India has the money and the determination to use its relationship with the U.S. to construct a military capable of matching China’s People’s Liberation Army. In the past two years, India has expanded its naval, air and theater nuclear capabilities. The Indian navy, which has formed close ties to the U.S. navy, is the fifth largest in the world and believes it must be able to deter what it perceives as China’s growing efforts to dominate the shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean, the South and East China Seas and the waters surrounding Taiwan, which offer a gateway to the Pacific Ocean.
For as long as people in the region remember, India traditionally saw Pakistan as its major threat but China’s growing military and economic expansionism has had the effect of shifting New Delhi’s focus towards China. Many Indian politicians and military advisers have warned that China has a clever tendency to present itself as a peaceful friend and neighbor while it continues to add to its military capability along Indian’s borders and use its wealth to further its energy goals across central and south Asia. For example, China has provided large sums of money to Sri Lanka to enlarge its southern port of Hambantota. The significance of Sri Lanka is that it sits almost at the tip of India looking directly into the main shipping lanes of the Indian Ocean and presenting a clear route to the Arabian Sea and the main oil-exporting nations like Saudi Arabia.
Some of India’s generals have reminded politicians in New Delhi that China takes a long term view of its military goals and sees them in terms best illustrated by the concept of “unrestricted warfare.” The concept came to prominence in a book of that name written by two senior Chinese military officers and published in 1999. It developed the thesis that China could win a conflict with the U.S. using unconventional and wide ranging means. The authors argued that China would be best served by accepting there were no rules of war and no tactics that could not be employed. Warfare should embrace terrorism, in economic or military forms, cyber attacks; psychological warfare and media warfare, whereby attempts should be made to control what people were told. Environmental warfare, meaning the poisoning of water supplies, would be effective as would the distribution of hard drugs. The authors pointed out that the U.S. military viewed war narrowly, with too much emphasis on technology. America was therefore vulnerable to unconventional tactics. Ultimately, the central thrust of the book was that China had to develop a "grand warfare method" combing military and non-military strategies.
Indian generals who closely study China and its People’s Liberation Army warn that the Chinese will often opt for unconventional methods to cause tension and weaken India’s resolve to stand up to Chinese bullying . They reckon China often makes a point of appearing peaceful and generous while it uses its massive reserves of cash to dominate its neighbors and reduce India’s influence. They add that Beijing recognizes India could equal it in the superpower stakes and therefore is determined to limit New Delhi’s role in Asia.
Before Barack Obama entered the White House, the Bush administration had been making strides in convincing India that, despite Washington’s closeness to Pakistan because of the war on terror, India and America had the potential to develop an important political/economic alliance. Washington stressed that it was keen to reduce America’s economic dependence on China by opening up a two-way economic exchange with India and its massive marketplace. Whether or not Obama pursues that goal remains to be seen. So far, he has not shown that he understands the significance of establishing closer relations with India, even if it is at the expense of upsetting Pakistan’s leaders. India is a massive marketplace with a highly educated, English speaking workforce and a technological capability that could eventually outstrip China in hi-tech research and development.