IRAQ EXIT TIED TO ISRAELI WAR PLANS?

IRAQ EXIT
TIED TO ISRAELI WAR PLANS?


White House pronouncements about an exit from Iraq may be more premature than at first thought because the U.S. military presence in that country is much larger than the Obama administration is prepared to admit. The reluctance of the White House and Pentagon to provide an accurate figure for our military footprint in Iraq, as well as neighboring nations like Jordan, may relate to credible reports Israel is preparing for conflict in 2011.

In 2010, the White House and the Iraqi leadership made much of the planned U.S. exit from Iraq, claiming U.S. troops would be withdrawn before the end of 2011 but like all such agreements the devil was in the detail. For example, the arrangement to exit Iraq embraced a continued, but considerably reduced, U.S. military presence for the sole purpose of training the Iraqi army. In the autumn of 2010, the Pentagon claimed to have 48,000 American military personnel in Iraq, the other nations of the once vaunted Bush coalition having withdrawn their soldier’s a long time ago. What the Pentagon statement failed to disclose was the number of contractor personnel within Iraq’s borders. That omission was significant since the U.S. military presence in any theater of conflict nowadays includes contractors. After Barach Obama became president, there was an increased recruitment of mercenaries, both American and foreign, employed by the Defense Department. By the close of 2009, it was estimated the increase was as high as 23% in Iraq alone.
In 2009, the Pentagon did not dispute reports that the total number of contractors working alongside the U.S. military in Afghanistan and Iraq totaled 242,647. However, in 2011, the true figure for the size of this new standing army could well be 300,000 if one includes contractor companies providing personnel for diplomatic protection duties and for ports and other security assignments on American soil. There are also contractor units working abroad for the CIA and a range of classified Special Forces and intelligence agencies
In Iraq, the true figure for the size of the U.S. military footprint could exceed 100,000. It is certainly not the 48,000 claimed by the Pentagon. The reason is that within CENTOM AOR – Area of Responsibility – the ratio of contractors to soldiers is generally 1:1 and sometimes 2:1.
Our military footprint in Iraq may be linked to the fact the Israeli military is secretly planning for conflicts in the Middle East in 2011. Therefore, it is unlikely the Pentagon will be willing to draw down the total complement of U.S. military personnel, including contractors, in Iraq. Recently, there have been credible reports Israel’s Defense Forces have plans for wars against Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. The reason for Israel’s desire to attack both groups is that Israeli military strategists see them as Iran’s allies, who could prove to be a thorn in Israel’s side the moment it attacks Iran. The Israeli thesis is attacks against Hamas and Hezbollah will weaken Iran’s future potential for retaliation. The fact there is little international appetite for an Israeli strike against Iran at the present time has forced Israel to reset what it perceives as more manageable objectives. Hezbollah in particular represents for the Israeli military and political establishment unfinished business and Hamas was not destroyed after the last Israeli campaign in Gaza.
One has to ask why Obama would chose keep 100,000 or more U.S. military personnel in Iraq going into 2011. The answer may be two-fold. First, he may be aware of Israel’s plans to deal with Hamas and Hezbollah and such a move could lead to attacks on American assets throughout the region. The same would be true, but on much more serious scale, if Israel suddenly targeted Iran. Washington must be aware the extreme Israeli administration led by Benyamin Netanyahu is capable of ignoring international opposition and attacking Iran without Washington’s approval. But, irrespective of Obama’s military strategy, one truth emerges from our continued presence in Iraq and it is the promise of an exit is as much a myth as the claim of Saddam’s weapons of mass destruction.