CHINA'S UNTESTED MILITARY GETS READY FOR HI-TECH WARS

China is investing billions of dollars in preparing its military to fight hi-tech adversaries and one of them could be the United States military should it defend Taiwan in the event China decides to invade the island as it has often threatened it will.
In a signal to Taiwan that it remains of frontline interest to the Chinese Community Party, Chinese leaders recently recommended the appointment of five new members to its CMC - Central Military Commission - all of them with experience in planning an invasion of Taiwan. The five, including generals like Wu Shengli, who was made the new naval commander last year, will have their posts on the CMC rubber stamped on October 15 when the 17th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party meets in Beijing to confirm the present leaders in power.
The saber rattling about Taiwan comes as Taiwan prepares for next year’s presidential elections amid threats from one of the leading contenders that, should he win, he will seek UN membership for the island, thereby declaring de facto independence from mainland China. The present Chinese leadership has already indicated that it will not stand by and allow that to happen.
All of this comes at a time when the Pentagon is convinced that China’s PLA –Peoples Liberation Army – is training to “win local wars under conditions of informatization,” meaning that it is developing a hi-tech capability to fight wars against enemies like the United States, and not just within the Taiwan Straits, but farther a field if necessary. In particular, China needs its military to be able to operate in sea lanes which it uses for the constant flow of oil, gas and metals that it ships to the Chinese mainland from across the globe. It needs those imports to boost its massive economy and to upgrade its infrastructure.
This year, China announced that it had increased its military budget by 17.8%, bringing its total expenditure to $45 billion. No one was fooled by that figure, given the fact China has never been truthful about his military spending. The US and the EU believe the figure is much higher and that the one provided by China exposes its lack of transparency, thereby making it difficult for others to discern China’s true military objectives.
The Pentagon is in no doubt that China’s military expansion is not only aimed at someday invading Taiwan but also at making its influence felt on the “greater periphery” of Central Asia and the Middle East. With regard to Taiwan, one third of China’s 1.5 million ground forces are camped in 3 military districts facing Taiwan. There are approximately 900 short range missiles pointed at Taiwan, an increase of 100 since 2006. The Chinese navy, which includes 58 attack submarines, is busy building a larger naval capability with ship to ship missiles, some capable of being used at long distances. And, according to the Pentagon, the Chinese air force has as many as 700 combat aircraft “within un-fueled range” of Taiwan.
But it is the PLA’s emphasis on hi-tech development that has most intrigued Pentagon watchers who have told Congress that the PLA has been developing a cyber warfare capability to attack US military computers in the opening hours of a conflict. A Pentagon report on the issue states that, as of 2005, the PLA had begun to incorporate “offensive computer network operations into its military exercises.” Part of the PLA’s cyber warfare training has already involved sustained hacker attacks on US military and civilian computer systems. This year, the Pentagon warned that the sheer scale of attacks on US information and banking systems from China indicated that the hacking could only be taking place with the connivance of the PLA and the Chinese political leadership. Pentagon cyber experts fear that China is developing a cyber capability to plant viruses in banking and critical intelligence networks in the US, viruses it will activate on the eve of a conflict in order to cause severe damage to the US economy and hamper the flow of intelligence between US agencies. The latest round of hacker attacks on US systems is being seen by experts as part of a training program by PLA cyber teams to see how well they can hack and infiltrate US networks.
In terms of military hardware, the Chinese are not only spending heavily on the international arms markets, they are also developing their own missiles. In January, they tested cruise-type missiles to be used by their nuclear forces. They also tested an anti-satellite missile and several types of intercontinental ballistic missiles that could reach the US. On the arms market, two of their major sources for materiel, including submarines, guided missile destroyers, drones, air-defense systems and aircraft are Russia and Israel that claims it is America’s number one ally.
Israel, much to the consternation of some in Congress, has had an historic arms relationship with China and has supplied it with advanced technology. In January, under pressure from the White House, Israel’s parliament implemented tougher controls on the export of military hardware. It is uncertain what impact these will have since Israel has generally acts alone in its international arms deals. According to Israel, it, like Russia, has not sold its most sophisticated weapons to the PLA. Not everyone is convinced by that argument. In the past, Israel sold important F-10 fighter avionics parts to the PLA in contravention of agreements with the US over dual use technology. It also sold US missile technology to China.
The Pentagon’s latest report to Congress on China’s military strategies confirms that the PLA and Chinese Communist Party remain obsessed with Taiwan and are moving towards a time when they will have a military capable of winning short wars against hi-tech adversaries. The report expresses concern that this “will increase Beijing’s option for military coercion to press for diplomatic advantage” in conflict situations.
Overall, Pentagon experts believe the PLA remains untested in modern warfare and that its political bosses lack military experience. Therefore, it is difficult to quantify the level of threat the PLA could pose to the US military in a regional conflict. But it is just this inexperience on the part of the PLA and its political bosses that could lead all of them to act on the basis of bad judgment and intelligence. In those circumstances, say Pentagon experts, the consequences “would be equally catastrophic whether based on advice from operationally inexperienced commanders or from ‘scientific’ combat models.”
The Pentagon report also points out that, as of 2007, “China can neither protect its foreign energy supplies, nor the routes on which they travel.” This is, in effect, the Achilles heel of China and its military. In a conflict with the US over Taiwan or disputed islands off Japan, the US navy and air force could effectively halt all energy supplies reaching China by sea and air. Over time, China could be starved of the fuel it would need for its military and of the much needed imports required to keep its manufacturing industry and economy afloat. China knows all of this and is anxious to expand its navy and air force. It hopes to have its first aircraft carrier in service within the next 7 to 8 years.