REAL RISK IRAQ WAR WILL EXPAND

While the focus in Iraq has been on the sectarian war between Shiites and Sunnis, and on the Bush Administration’s “Troops Surge,” there have been ominous developments in Kurdish northern Iraq that could lead to a widening of the Iraq conflict.
One of those developments was a warning from Turkey that it will intervene militarily in Iraq unless America deals with Kurdish guerillas that are launching attacks into Turkey. To date, the Turks have dispatched special operations teams to capture some of the 4,000 members of the PPK – Kurdistan Workers Party – they claim are enjoying a safe haven in Kurdish towns and villages in northern Iraq.
The PPK has been battling the Turkish military for decades, demanding that Turkey cede independence to Kurdish regions within its south east border. The Turks have fought a counter insurgency war against the PPK in which tens of thousands of people have died. What angers the Turks is that the PPK has frequently used bases in Iraq to launch strikes into Turkey. Until recently the US thought the situation was under control. It had been assured by Kurdish officials with close ties to Washington that the Kurdish militias had the situation under control.
Iraq’s Kurds, however, have no love for the Turks and have long suspected that Turkey has plans to invade the north of Iraq in the event of an all-out civil war in. The Kurds claim the Turks have their eyes on a big prize – the oil fields of Kirkuk. By seizing them, the Turkish military would be able to crush the political ambitions of Kurds throughout the region. For the Bush Administration, the Turks-Kurds issue is a difficult one. The US protected the Kurds with a no-fly zone during the last years of the Saddam era and Israel has developed strong links to the Kurds. The Israelis have persuaded Washington that an independent, oil rich Kurdistan in northern Iraq would be an ideal buffer against a future Iran-dominated Iraq. Israel’s argument may not be without merit in the eyes of neocons. They now recognize that the US overthrow of Saddam empowered Iran and enabled it to exercise considerable power over its fellow Shiites, the majority population of Iraq. As part of a strategy to enhance the military capability of the large Kurdish militias, Israel has been providing them with specialized military training. For Washington, the biggest problem facing it is the fact that Turkey is an ally and a member of NATO. In the event Turkey followed through with its threat to intervene in Iraq, the US could find itself in the precarious position of having to confront the Turks on a battlefield.
From a Turkish perspective, the Kurds of northern Iraq pose a serious terrorist threat. The Turkish argument goes something like this. Iraq descends into civil war and the Kurds hold the rich oil fields of Kirkuk and expel the Arabs from the Kirkuk region. The Kurds then use the oil to become a serious power in the region and advance the PPK cause of uniting parts of south East Turkey and Iran with Iraq’s Kurdish areas to form an ancient Kurdistan. Few experts agree with that scenario but many accept the tensions between the Turks and the Kurds in northern Iraq could quickly get out of hand and flare into a major conflict, leaving the US to decide which side to support. Much more worrying from a US military perspective would be a need to dispatch troops to the north which has been relatively peaceful and until now has not been a drain on US military resources. That would seriously deplete US reserves and undermine the present surge strategy in Baghdad.
Turkey’s foreign Minister, Abdullah Gul, warned recently that his government ruled nothing out and that the US had been warned that Turkey would take whatever steps it considered necessary to deal with the threat from the PPK, especially threats emanating from across the border in Iraq. To make his point, Abdullah Gul said he had recently reminded the US that Turkey would not wait around forever for the US to deal with PPK elements in the Kurdish north of Iraq.
“We will do what we have to do. I have said to the Americans many times: “What would you do if there was a terrorist organization in Mexico attacking America. We cannot wait forever.”
Turkey has been privately telling journalists that its ally, the United States, has been playing a duplicitous and dangerous role in northern Iraq by allowing the CIA to fund an Iranian section of the PPK. Like its Turkish counterpart, Iran’s PPK believes Iran should cede independence to Kurds living on part of its territory. According to Turkish intelligence, the CIA has been funding the Iranian PPK and using it as a proxy to carry out attacks within Iran to destabilize the Iranian regime. The Turks argue that such a strategy is tantamount to supporting terrorists because training and funding for the Iranian PPK benefits all PPK fighters, especially those launching raids into Turkey.
Presently, Turkey feels somewhat isolated from the West because of overwhelming opposition among Europeans to its request to join the EU and a growing feeling it is being punished by Washington for failing to allow the US to launch a major strike into Iraq from Turkish territory in 2003. That feeling of being isolated has been manifested in a growing anti-western movement among Turks and loud demands for the country’s military to assert itself over the Kurdish issue. In 2006, the Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Erdogan, was close to ordering an invasion of northern Iraq when he declared that his country’s patience was wearing thin. In particular, he singled out the US, accusing it of prevarication, meaning it had given him assurances it would deal with the PPK but had not followed through.
Aside from the Turkish threat of military intervention, the US should also be concerned about Kirkuk, which was seized by the Kurds in April 2003. Prior to that, Saddam had forced Kurds out of the city and replaced them with Arabs. Since 2003, Kurds have flooded back in and tensions between them and Arabs have been growing. The Kurds intend to hold Kirkuk because of its oil wealth and make it part of Kurdistan. To that end they have promised the Arabs a census followed by a referendum before the end of 2007. The referendum would allow Arabs and Kurds to decide whether Kirkuk should come under the control of a Kurdish regional government. The likelihood of a referendum is now slim due to the instability of the Shiite dominated government in Baghdad. It had agreed to a regional government for the Kurds and a referendum on Kirkuk. Now, Shiite political leaders in Baghdad are beginning to get cold feet because their followers and Iranian backers are opposed to the handing over of the oil fields of Kirkuk and the city to a Kurdish regional authority.
Kurdish leaders are determined to press on with the planned referendum because Kirkuk means so much to their plans for the future of Kurdistan. If the Shiite leadership back tracks on its promise to allow a referendum that could lead to a direct confrontation between the Kurds and Shiites. Should the present conflict widen to include the Kurdish north an all-out civil war would be inevitable. In that event, Turkey would not sit idly by and the US would find itself facing off against the Turkish military, which is a NATO partner.
Sources close to the CIA say the agency has warned Washington of Turkey’s ambitions to seize the Kirkuk oil fields and the real possibility Iran would respond by taking possession of the oil refineries at Basra. That is the malign scenario but it is not one that can be dismissed in such a volatile region.