IS BAKER GROUP'S NEXT FOCUS AFGHANISTAN?

On December 6, the day the Baker Group handed President Bush its report on the dire situation in Iraq, attacks by a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan confirmed that another phase of the president’s war on terror was far from a success.
That was clearly on the mind of British Prime Minister, Tony Blair as he flew across the Atlantic that same day to persuade the Bush administration to commit more resources to Afghanistan where British, American and other NATO forces are coming under sustained pressure from a Taliban that has re-emerged as a serious threat.
In the past year, while the White House has focused mainly on the chaos in Iraq, Taliban fighters have launched increasing numbers of suicide attacks. By employing roadside bomb tactics borrowed from insurgents in Iraq, they have killed over 4,000. Even though there were 449 attacks in November compared with double that figure in September, the facts on the ground speak to a Taliban that has tightened its grip on areas of the countryside, making reconstruction almost impossible. One aspect of the Afghan conflict that would surprise many people but has not made the headlines is that NATO has brokered deals with the Taliban in some areas and ceded power to them only to find those deals allowed the Taliban to regroup and mount more attacks. The most surprising element of that failed strategy is that the US and Brittan roundly criticized Pakistan president, Pervez Musharraf earlier this year when he reached similar arrangements with tribal leaders along the border between his country and Afghanistan.
British PM Tony Blair has become increasingly concerned that if the US and other NATO countries fail to provide more troops, materiel and funding for the Afghan war it could be lost too, just like the war in Iraq. This year, there have been rumbling in several European capitals that the situation in Afghanistan is so like Iraq that NATO forces cannot and should not stay there indefinitely. There is also recognition in many of those same capitals that the war in Iraq did irreparable damage to the campaign in Afghanistan. Resources were taken from Afghanistan for the Iraq war, leaving a job half done. As a consequence, a complete route of the Taliban was not achieved and Qaeda was not destroyed. Bin Laden and his inner circle were allowed to flee from Tora Bora and the reconstruction of the country has since proved to be a disaster.
Many of Afghanistan’s provinces are now badlands where there is no law and order and where the Taliban is imposing its strict Islamic Wahabism principles on the population. In just one week six female government employees were murdered because the Taliban disapproved of working women and accused them of being government spies. The promises by the two First Ladies, Cherie Blair and Laura Bush, that the war on terror would liberate Afghan women have proved to be hollow. Outside of Kabul, most women and girls are no better off than they were before the war. It could be argued that they are worse off because they briefly had hopes of change when schools opened to admit girls but those schools have now been shut by extremists. Somewhat ironically, both First Ladies have been strangely silent on the plight of Afghan females since reports have emerged of the deteriorating situation in the country.
One of the ways the Afghan war certainly mirrors the one Iraq is the total lack of a successful reconstruction plan. When all is said and done and someday an accounting is made of all the US dollars pored into the country it may well emerge that Afghanistan was another financial black hole. In every Afghan province there is anger and disillusionment with the US and with big donors like the World Bank that promised huge funds for building hospitals, power plants, water and sewage plants, clinics schools, highways and industries. There is a general recognition that large sums of money that were channeled into the central government in Kabul never left the capital. Alarmingly, there appears to have been little US accountability about the way Afghan reconstruction funds were spent. In many instances, the various US departments responsible for handling that money employed contractors who were unreliable and have so far not been brought to heel to explain where the money was went. Afghans complain that, unlike Oxfam and similar organizations with a history of handling post conflict reconstruction, contractors have proven to be amateurs in the field and have generally shown a total lack of knowledge of the country, its customs and its needs.
For the British who are heavily engaged in daily firefights with the Taliban in Helmand Province, there is a growing recognition that if sufficient resources are not committed to the war, it could be lost. In Kandahar, the spiritual birthplace of the Taliban, the situation has worsened in recent months with the Taliban exerting more and more control over the population. It is the areas where the Soviets lost a major battle against the mujihadeen many of whom formed the Taliban and are still in its ranks. A major problem facing British, as well as American forces operating from fire bases is that the use of overwhelming force to deal with the enemy can often have a counter productive impact. In many instances, civilians are killed in what is pejoratively described as “collateral damage,” thereby alienating the civilian population from coalition forces.
For American soldiers operating from fire bases Kunar in the mountains of the east the battle is getting hard because of the terrain and the fact that the Taliban is on familiar territory, constantly being supplied from across the border in Pakistan. Kunar is a wild, rugged landscape which the Soviets found almost impossible to control and is it believed Bin Laden may be hiding somewhere in that region. The fighters facing US troops are not always locals. Some are foreigners who acquired considerable combat experience in place like Chechnya and Iraq.
Now that the Baker Group has reported in Iraq some observers feel it may not be long before it, or a similar think tank representing NATO countries, is set up to examine the war in Afghanistan and consider if a new strategy is needed there that would include a time table for a phased troop withdrawal.